FFHMPR Demographics Subcommittee Working Document November 5, 2010 The role of demographics for our committee
We need metrics for ensuring that our survey(s) and other forms of public input appropriately represent the town (i.e., respondent data will be weighted to reflect the real-world demographics of our community)
o Assumptions behind survey:
Metrics for ensuring reasonable representation of community
Unless otherwise stated, the combined resources of CERC Town Profile data and US Census (2000 and 3-Year estimates 2006-2008) will be used as reference for the following demographic parameters:
Age
Gender
Employment
Ethnicity
Marital status
Household income
Households with seniors
Households with children under 18 at home
Households with children in the Newtown Public Schools – will be sourced from Town/BOE data
People who voted in the last budget referendum – will be sourced from Town/Registrar of Voters data
Working assumptions re: overall, long-term town population for better strategic planning
Our Position: To better understand the long-term strategic uses for the Fairfield Hills property, we believe that an estimate of population based on the build-out of the town, as modeled in the
FFHMPR Demographics Subcommittee Working Document November 5, 2010
Planimetrics document, tempered with more recent information from other population sources (see above), provide a reasonable set of assumptions for us to proceed with1.
o Our POV regarding the two population projections: The two highly different views provided in the documents strongly suggest that the underlying models are extremely sensitive to recent historic trends. The first, the “Population Projections for 2000-2030” document essentially views the future through the lens of the tail end of a time period rife with housing speculation. The “School Enrollment Dynamics & Projections 2010-2019” document extends the economic realities seen during an unprecedented recession through to 2020. Both population studies show example routes to eventual build-out. In our opinions, an estimate of the final population at build-out, not the actual route to build-out, is
pertinent to the work of the committee.
o Leveraging Planimetrics Build-out Expectations:
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